“以需定供”:2024—2050年托育需求与供给规模预测——以上海市为例

“Demand-Based Supply”:Measuring the Demand and Supply Scale of Childcare Services from 2024 to 2050——Take Shanghai as an Example

少子化形势客观上要求以需求为导向推动托育服务供给。基于Bootstrapping改进的ARIMA-LSTM模型测算2024—2050年上海市人口规模与出生率,进而考察在动态变化的入托率下幼儿园、托育机构的托育需求与供给规模。结果显示:托位缺口大,且供需缺口经历了“起步-快速增长-稳定回落”过程。起步期(2024—2032年)幼儿园、托育机构的平均供需缺口分别为0.62万、3.58万个,应供给310个幼儿园托班与298所托育机构。快速增长期(2033—2042年)幼儿园、机构的供需缺口为2.42万、10.24万个。在第一阶段的基础上,还需供给900个托班与619所机构。稳定回落期(2043—2050年)幼儿园、机构的供需缺口回落至2.36万、10.94万个。若第二阶段已经补足缺口,则无需再增加供给。学前教育学位的持续释放为幼儿园下设托班提供了基础,但是其师资与财政经费的短缺,以及托育机构规模增长的压力是制约托育服务有效供给的关键。

The situation of declining birthrate objectively requires a demand-oriented promotion of childcare services′supply.The ARIMA-LSTM model improved by the Bootstrapping is used to calculate the population size and birth rate of Shanghai from 2024 to 2050,and then examine the demand and supply scale of kindergartens and childcare institutions under the dynamically changing enrollment rate.The results show that:the support gap is huge,and the supply and demand gap has experienced the process of“starting-rapid growth-steady decline”.In the initial period(2024—2032),the average supply and demand gaps for kindergartens and childcare institutions are 6200 and 35800,respectively,and 310 kindergartens and 298 childcare institutions should be supplied.During the rapid growth period(2033—2042),the supply and demand gap for kindergartens and childcare institutions is 24200 and 102400,respectively.On the basis of the first phase,900 classes and 619 childcare institutions need to be provided.During the stable decline period(2043—2050),the supply and demand gap for kindergartens and childcare institutions dropped to 23600 and 109400,respectively.If the gap has been filled in the second stage,there is no need to increase supply.The continued release of preschool education provides a foundation for kindergartens to set up childcare services.However,the shortage of teachers and financial funds,as well as the pressure from the growth of the scale of childcare institutions,are the keys to restricting the effective supply of childcare services.