智慧城市建设能否促进数实融合?——基于双重机器学习的因果推断

Can smart city construction promote digital-reality integration?Causal inference based on double machine learning

智慧城市试点是中国推进新型城镇化建设的重要政策之一,也是实现数实融合的重要手段。基于2010-2021年中国282个地级及以上城市数据,以智慧城市试点政策为准自然实验,运用双重机器学习模型实证分析智慧城市建设对城市数实融合的影响及其作用机制。研究表明:(1)智慧城市建设能够显著促进数实融合,该结论在样本缩尾、增加样本维度、调整样本等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。(2)智慧城市建设通过促进产业结构升级、提升数字治理水平和扩大对外贸易,进而促进数实融合。(3)智慧城市建设在非资源城市、非老工业基地、中小城市、宽松环境规制地区表现出显著的数实融合正向效应。(4)智慧城市建设在促进数实融合方面具有空间协调效应,能够在全国、省份以及地区层面缩小数实融合的相对发展差距。研究结论为中国深化数实融合、加快推动区域经济协调发展提供理论支撑和政策启示。

The smart city pilot program is one of China's key policies for advancing new-type urbanization and an important means for achieving digital-reality integration.Based on data from 282 cities at or above the prefecture level in China from 2010 to 2021,this study uses the smart city pilot policy as a natural experiment,applying a double machine learning model to empirically analyze the impact of smart city construction on digital-reality integration and the mechanism for this effect.The findings indicate the following:(1)Smart city construction can significantly promote digital-reality integration,and this conclusion remains robust after a series of sensitivity checks,including sample trimming,dimension expansion,and sample adjustment.(2)Smart city construction promotes digital-reality integration by facilitating the upgrading of industrial structures,improved digital governance,and the expansion of foreign trade.(3)Smart city construction has significant positive effects on digital-reality integration in non-resource cities,non-traditional industrial bases,small and medium-sized cities,and regions with relaxed environmental regulations.(4)The construction of smart cities has a spatial coordination effect in promoting digital-reality integration.It can help reduce the relative development gap in digital-reality integration at the national,provincial,and regional levels.The study's conclusions provide theoretical support and policy insights for deepening the strategy for digital-reality integration and accelerating regional economic coordination in China.