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基于MaxEnt模型预测海南外来入侵植物新记录种—沼生金纽扣在中国的潜在适生区 被引量:1

MaxEnt Modeling Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Acmella uliginosa,a Newly Recorded Invasive Plant in Hainan,China
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摘要 随着全球气温升高及国际贸易往来日益频繁,全球正面临着外来入侵持续上升的压力,因此深入了解外来入侵物种的种类及其可能分布范围对于采取有效防控措施至关重要。本研究报道了海南入侵植物新纪录种—沼生金纽扣,并采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型结合地理信息系统(ArcGis),预测沼生金纽扣在中国的主要潜在适生区域,运用ROC曲线分析法进行验证,并运用刀切法分析影响沼生金纽扣分布的主要环境变量。结果表明:沼生金纽扣在中国有较大的分布空间和入侵潜力,主要集中在华南、华中和西南等地区,其中高、中适生区主要集中在广西、广东、福建、海南和台湾地区,低适生区主要集中在江西、湖南、重庆、贵州、湖南和浙江。到2070年,沼生金纽扣在中国的适生区总体呈减少趋势,总体适生面积由当前的20.64%减少到11.98%,其中低适生区减少5.38%,中、高适生区减少3.28%,主要表现在四川、云南、贵州、湖南和浙江的低度适生区面积明显缩小,中、高度适生区仍然主要集中在海南、广西、广东、福建和台湾地区。ROC曲线分析法得出平均面积AUC值为0.98,标准差为0.004,表明预测结果可靠。刀切法分析显示,影响沼生金纽扣在中国潜在地理分布的4个关键环境变量分别是Bio13(最湿月降水量)、Bio16(最湿季节降水量)、Bio2(月平均昼夜温差)和Bio11(最冷季节平均温度),其相对贡献率分别为27.6%、22.5%、11.1%和8.0%,说明降水量和温差对沼生金纽扣的分布影响较大;而对沼生金纽扣在中国潜在地理分布影响最小的4个关键环境变量分别是Sq2(土壤营养保持能力)、Sq6(土壤毒性)、Bio9(最干季节平均温度)和Sq5(土壤含盐量)。沼生金纽扣在华南地区潜在适生区分布面积较大,需要加强防范和监测,防止蔓延危害。 As global temperature rises and international trade becomes more frequent,the world is facing increasing pressure from invasive species.Therefore,it is crucial to have a deep understanding of the types of invasive species and the possible distribution ranges to take effective prevention and control measures.This paper reported a new record invasive plant species in Hainan,Acmella uliginosa,and MaxEnt maximum entropy ecological niche modeling combined with Geographic Information Systems(GIS)was used to predict the primary potential suitable areas for A.uliginosa under current and future climatic conditions in China,ROC curve analysis method was used to validate,knife-edge method to was used to analyze the major environmental variables influencing the distribution of the A.uliginosa.A.uliginosa had a large distribution space and invasion potential in China,with the main distribution areas concentrated in southern,central and southwestern regions such as Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Hainan and Taiwan region.The low suitable area was mainly concentrated in Jiangxi,Hunan,Chongqing,Guizhou,Hunan and Zhejiang.By 2070,the overall suitable area of A.uliginosa in China is expected to decrease from 20.64%to 11.98%,with a decrease of 5.38%in low suitable areas and 3.28%in medium and high suitable areas.The area of low suitable areas in Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou,Hunan and Zhejiang has significantly reduced.The ROC curve analysis method showed that the average area under the curve(AUC)value is 0.968 with a standard deviation of 0.004,indicating that the prediction results are reliable.The knife-cutting method analysis showed that the four key environmental variables that have the greatest impact on the potential geographical distribution of A.uliginosa in China are Bio13(precipitation of the wettest month),Bio16(precipitation of the wettest season),Bio2(mean diurnal temperature range),and Bio11(mean temperature of the coldest season)are 27.6%,22.5%,11.1%and 8.0%respectively,indicating that precipitation and temperature range have a significant impact on the distribution of Viola palustris.The four key environmental variables that have the least impact on the potential geographical distribution of Viola palustris in China are Sq2(soil nutrient retention capacity),Sq6(soil toxicity),Bio9(mean temperature of the driest season),and Sq5(soil salinity).The four key environmental variables with the least impact on the potential geographical distribution of aquatic golden buttons in China are Sq6 toxicity,Sq7 operability,Bio1 annual average temperature,and Sq5 soil salt content.The potential suitable area for A.uliginosa is large in southern China and needs to be monitored to prevent further spread.
作者 李晓霞 胡宽义 曾安逸 董定超 LI Xiaoxia;HU Kuanyi;ZENG Anyi;DONG Dingchao(Institute of Scientific and Technology Information,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Haikou,Hainan 571101,China;Yunnan Innovation Institute,Beihang University,Kunming,Yunnan 650051,China)
出处 《热带作物学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第9期1989-1997,共9页 Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops
基金 海南省自然科学基金高层次人才项目(No.721RC631) 海南省自然科学基金青年基金项目(No.323QN299) 海南省哲学社会科学规划项目(No.HNSK(YB)23-75)。
关键词 入侵植物 沼生金纽扣 潜在适生区 MAXENT ArcGis invasive plant Acmella uliginosa potential suitable area MaxEnt ArcGis
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