基于灰色GM(1,1)、ARIMA预测模型的海洋生产总值预测对比研究——以浙江省为例

Comparative Study of Marine Gross Product Forecast based on Grey GM(1,1)and ARIMA Forecast Model in Zhejiang Province

通过对比分析国内外研究现状,运用灰色预测模型、ARIMA预测模型对海洋经济发展进行预测。以浙江省2001-2020年海洋经济发展数据为例进行实践探索,分别构建灰色GM(1,1)、ARIMA(1,1,0)预测模型,计算2001-2030年浙江省海洋生产总值的预测值,对比两个模型的预测值差异性,分析两个模型预测值偏差率的差异的原因,并根据海洋经济发展形势研判的特点,建议使用ARIMA模型进行预测海洋生产总值。在此基础上,立足新发展理念,从产业平台培育、重点产业发展、科技创新能力提升、创新民营经济参与模式、完善统计核算体系等方面提出浙江省海洋经济发展的有关建议。

By analyzing the research status at home and abroad,this study compared and analyzed the application of the grey prediction model and the ARIMA prediction model in the Marine economic prediction.Taking the Marine economic development data of Zhejiang Province from 2001 to 2020 as an example,this study conducted practical exploration and constructed the grey GM(1,1)and ARIMA(1,1,0)prediction models respectively.The models were used to calculate the predicted values of the gross Marine product of Zhejiang Province from 2001 to 2030.The differences between the predicted values of the two models were compared,and the reasons for the differences in the deviation rate of the predicted values of the two models were analyzed.According to the characteristics of the Marine economic development situation,it is suggested to use the ARIMA model to forecast the gross Marine product.On this basis,building on the new development stage,from the cultivation of industrial platform,the development of key industries,the enhancement of scientific and technological innovation ability,the innovation of private economic participation mode,the improvement of statistical accounting system and other aspects of the development of Marine economy in Zhejiang Province are put forward.