菲律宾小马科斯政府南海政策国际话语策略的大数据分析

An Analysis on Big Data in Media about the International Discourse Strategy of Philippines’SCS Policy under Marcos Jr.

小马科斯执政以来的南海国际话语炒作是菲律宾国内政治意见领袖推动,以“弱者叙事”和国际话语“依附”为基本手段,寻求菲律宾南海利益主张与美国“印太战略”捆绑的外交策略。菲律宾媒体和国际媒体报道量、信源、细分议题等大数据分析表明,虽然菲律宾南海议题报道量波动趋势与国际媒体基本吻合,一定程度上显示了菲律宾炒作南海国际话语的政策效应,但是,南海议题的信息发布和议题设置权仍然被美西方主导的国际媒体所掌控。菲律宾政府以国际话语为抓手,借势域外干涉势力,谋求南海权益的策略,实际上沦为美国“印太战略”对中国和南海周边国家“分而治之”的工具。亚太秩序结构性变迁大背景下,菲律宾的南海政策恶化了地区形势,也将中菲南海争端的最终解决拖入更复杂的境地。

The hype of international discourse on the South China Sea since Marcos Jr.came to power is a diplomatic strategy promoted by domestic leaders of political opinion in the Philippines,seeking to bundle the PhilippinesSouth China Sea interests with the U.S.Indo-Pacific strategy with the basic means of the weak narrative and the dependence narrative in international discourse.There are three prominent features.First,the Philippines uses the“injured crew”,“water cannon attack”and other incidents with visual im-pacts to create an image of the weak,confusing the truth of the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines and the related complex professional discussions.Second,the Philippines touts its military and security cooperation with the United States and its allies,emphasizing its strong international backing against China.Third,the Philippines has incorporated its claims in the South China Sea into the so-called rules-based international order,creating the impression of binding the U.S.public opinion on Chinas Indo-Pacific strategy.The results of big data analysis on the number of publications,information sources,and subdivided is-sues of domestic and international media show that the fluctuation trend of the number of publications on the South China Sea issue in the Philippines has been basically consistent with that of international media,to some extent indicating the effects of the Philippinespolicy of hyping the international discourse on the South China Sea.However,mainstream international media from the United States and the West have main-tained control over the dissemination of information and agenda setting on the South China Sea issue.The Philippinesstrategy of pursuing its interests in the South China Sea by leveraging international discourse and external intervention forces has actually become a tool of the U.S.Indo-Pacific strategy for dividing and ruling China and other neighboring countries around South China Sea.Against the backdrop of structural changes in the Asia-Pacific international order,the PhilippinesSouth China Sea policy has exacerbated the regional situation and complicated the prospects for a final resolution of the South China Sea disputes involving China and the Philippines.The international discourse strategy of the PhilippinesSouth China Sea policy caters to the needs of the United States and its allies to create a negative image of China,while it is not conducive to the settlement of the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines for regional peace.Against the backdrop of structural changes in the Asia-Pacific international order,the Philippinescurrent policy toward the South China Sea has only worsened the regional security situation and dragged the final settlement of the South China Sea dispute into a more complicated dilemma than ever before.