Mental emotional disorder is a predictor of stroke incidence in adults:Ten year results of the Bogor Cohort Study on Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Indonesia

Objective:To determine the stroke predictors for the 10-year of follow-up in Bogor City,Indonesia.Methods:The prospective study analyzed the data of 4445 stroke-free subjects aged 25 years and above that was part of"the Bogor Cohort Study on Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors".Data were collected by interview method with structured questionnaires,physical measurements three times a year,and laboratory examination every two years during a 10-year follow-up(2011-2021,without examination in 2020).The incidence of stroke is based on anamnesis results and examination by a neurologist.Other stroke predictor variables include characteristics,biological conditions,and risk behavior.We analysed 4445 stroke-free samples with Cox proportional hazard regression test.Results:During the 10-year observation,stroke incidence was 440 person-years per 100000 population(95%CI 370-530).During the follow-up of ten years,the main predictor of stroke was mental-emotional disorders with HR 4.2(95%CI 2.8-6.3)after adjustment by age,hypertension,obesity,abdominal obesity,and high LDL-cholesterol levels.Conclusions:Mental-emotional disorders are the strongest predictor of stroke incidence.Hence,psychological factors must be controlled in a stroke prevention program.