扬州市邗江区耕地时空变化及驱动因素分析

Analysis of the Spatial-temporal Changes and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land in Hanjiang District,Yangzhou City

以扬州市邗江区耕地为研究对象,在对耕地数量、质量现状分析的基础上,采用土地利用动态变化分析法对耕地数量、质量进行时空变化分析,采用灰色关联法对耕地数量变化的驱动因素进行分析。结果表明:研究期内耕地面积有所减少,动态度较小;受城市快速发展和农业结构调整影响,减少的耕地主要转为建设用地和林地。新增耕地主要来源于城乡用地增减挂钩、耕地占补平衡、土地综合整治等项目,耕地质量较高。城镇化率、总人口、第二三产业占地区生产总值比重、GDP、粮食总产量、粮食作物播种面积是影响耕地数量变化的主要驱动因素。

Taking the cultivated land in Hanjiang District,Yangzhou City as the research object,based on the analysis of the current situation of cultivated land quantity and quality,the land use dynamic change analysis method was used to analyze the spatial-temporal changes of cultivated land quantity and quality,and the grey correlation method was used to analyze the driving factors of cultivated land quantity changes.The results showed that during the research period,the area of cultivated land had been reduced,and dynamic degree was small.Affected by the rapid development of urban and the adjustment of agricultural structure,the reduced cultivated land was mainly converted into construction land and forest.New cultivation land mainly came from projects such as increasing or decreased urban and rural land,replenishment of cultivated land,comprehensive land remediation,etc,quality of cultivated land was higher.Urbanization rate,total population,second and tertiary industries occupy regional GDP,GDP,total grain output and sowing area of grain crops were the main driving factors affecting changes in the number of arable land.