数字经济对粮食种植碳排放的影响及空间溢出效应——基于长三角41个市的面板数据分析

The impact of digital economy on carbon emissions from grain cultivation and its spatial spillover effects——Panel data analysis based on 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta

研究数字经济对粮食种植碳排放的影响及空间溢出效应,揭示数字经济在减排降碳过程中的作用机理,有助于深化粮食种植碳排放研究,对于探索“双碳”目标下粮食减排降碳政策的制定具有重要意义。基于长三角地区41个市2011—2020年的面板数据,利用熵值法测算数字经济水平,研究数字经济与粮食种植碳排放的时空特征,并构造空间面板杜宾模型分析数字经济对粮食种植碳排放的影响。结果表明:(1)数字经济水平在空间上存在显著差异,中南部地区的数字经济水平明显高于北部地区,且2015年后,大部分地区的数字经济水平显著提升,整体上呈“以上海、杭州以及南京等核心城市为中心,向外围逐渐降低”的环状分布特征;(2)粮食种植碳排放存在显著的空间差异,高值区集中分布于北部地区,低值区主要分布于中南部地区。粮食种植碳排放空间集聚特征变化较大,北部地区多为高高集聚区域,中南部地区多为低低集聚区域,且高高集聚区域与低低集聚区域均有扩大的趋势;(3)数字经济、粮食生产效率、粮食种植结构对粮食种植碳排放均具有明显的抑制作用,农业经济发展水平与劳动力规模对粮食种植碳排放虽有抑制作用但不明显。未来,应针对不同市的粮食种植碳排放与数字经济发展现状,制定差异化的碳减排政策,加强各市间的政策配合与技术交流,促进数字经济与粮食生产领域深度融合;研发低碳投入要素与绿色低碳技术,合理规划粮食种植结构,促进基础设施与资源的高效集约利用,发展现代化农业,从整体上降低长三角地区粮食种植碳排放。

Studying the impact and spatial spillover effect of the digital economy on carbon emissions from grain cultivation,revea-ling the mechanism of the digital economy in the process of carbon emission reduction and helping to deepen research on carbon emis-sions from grain cultivation.It has important practical significance for exploring the formulation of grain emission reduction and carbon reduction policies under the“dual carbon”goal.Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region,the entropy val-ue method was used to calculate the level of digital economy,study the spatio-temporal characteristics of the digital economy and car-bon emissions from grain cultivation from 2011 to 2020,and construct a spatial panel Durbin model to analyze the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions from grain cultivation.The results indicated that:①There were significant differences in the level of the digital economy in space,with the level of the digital economy in the central and southern regions was significantly higher than that in the northern region,and after 2015,the level of the digital economy in most regions had significantly increased,and the overall distribu-tion was characterized by a ring-shaped distribution centered on the core cities of Shanghai,Hangzhou,and Nanjing,and decreasing gradually to the periphery.②There were significant spatial differences in carbon emissions from grain cultivation,with high-value areas concentrated in the northern region and low-value areas mainly distributed in the central and southern regions.The spatial clustering characteristics of carbon emissions from grain cultivation had undergone significant changes,with the northern regions were mostly high-high-clustering areas and the central and southern regions were mostly low-low-clustering areas,and the high-high-clustering area and low-low-clustering area were both on the trend of expanding.③The digital economy,grain production efficiency,and grain cultivation structure had obvious inhibiting effects on carbon emissions from grain cultivation.The level of agricultural economic devel-opment and labor scale had inhibiting effects on carbon emissions from grain cultivation,but they were not obvious.In the future,differ-entiated carbon emission reduction policies should be formulated based on the carbon emissions from grain cultivation and the develop-ment of digital economy in different cities,and policy cooperation and technical exchanges among cities should be strengthened,so as to promote the in-depth integration of the digital economy and grain production fields.The research and development of low-carbon in-put elements and green low-carbon technologies,rational planning of grain cultivation structure,promotion of efficient and intensive u-tilization of infrastructure and resources,the development of modern agriculture,and the overall reduction of carbon emissions from grain cultivation in the Yangtze River Delta region.