基于GM(1,1)模型的山西省R&D经费投入预测研究

Prediction Research on Shanxi’s R&D Expenditure Input Based on GM(1,1)Model

采用灰色GM(1,1)模型,以山西省2015-2022年R&D经费投入数据为样本数列,对山西2023-2030年R&D经费投入进行预测。研究发现,山西省R&D经费投入将从2020年的211.1亿元增加至2025年的380.4亿元,年均增长12.5%,与20%的目标值差距较大;2030年,山西省R&D经费投入将达到678亿元,仍处于全国较低水平。据此,就如何提升山西省R&D经费投入规模提出三点对策建议,以期为政府职能部门提供决策参考。

Employing the grey GM(1,1)model and taking the R&D expenditure input data of Shanxi province from 2015 to 2022 as the sample series,this study predicts the R&D expenditure input of Shanxi province from 2023 to 2030.It is discovered that the R&D expenditure input in Shanxi province will increase from 21.11 billion yuan in 2020 to 38.04 billion yuan in 2025,with an average annual growth rate of 12.5%,which is considerably different from the target value of 20%.In 2030,the R&D expenditure input in Shanxi province will reach 67.8 billion yuan,still remaining at a relatively low level nationwide.Based on this,three countermeasures and suggestions on improving the scale of R&D expenditure input in Shanxi province are proposed in order to provide decision-making references for government functional departments.