塔利班重新执政以来的阿富汗智库

The Afghanistan’s Think Tanks Since the Taliban’s Return to Power

2001年阿富汗塔利班政权垮台,阿富汗进入“阿富汗伊斯兰共和国”时期,此后20年间阿富汗政府不断尝试推进和平进程,争取国际支持。在这种背景下,阿富汗涌现出大批智库,这些智库类型多样,积极开展多种研究活动、外事活动乃至青年培养项目,力图为阿富汗国家重建、和平进程和外交政策等献计献策。在此20年间,这些小而精的智库持续在自身专业领域发挥重要作用,形成了强大的智库分析网络,为政府战略决策与政策制定提供了有力支撑,在弥合社会分歧、联结中央政府与基层社会等方面发挥了一些积极作用。2021年阿富汗塔利班再次掌权,局势骤变,各项限制措施的出台使得智库的生存环境发生了巨大变化。面对阿富汗剧烈变化的国内社会和塔利班持续施加的高压统治,智库必须解决两个关键挑战,实现在塔利班强硬态度之下坚守自身立场的同时持续推进智库正常运行与研究工作。3年多来,阿富汗智库出现严重分化,有些智库出走国外,有些依然坚守在阿富汗,有些已经停止活动。简而言之,智库在阿富汗的发展不仅显示出阿富汗社会的变化,也充分展现当代国家治理以及外交中以智库为代表的第三方势力的重要性与影响力。

The fall of the Taliban in 2001 ushered in a period of“Islamic Republic of Afghanistan”.Over the following 20 years,the government of Afghanistan continuously attempted to advance the peace process and sought international support.Meanwhile,a large number of think tanks have emerged in the country,which are diversified and active in a wide range of research activities,foreign affairs activities and even youth training programs in an attempt to contribute to the national reconstruction,the peace process and the foreign policy of Afghanistan.During the two decades,these small yet specialized think tanks have continued to play an important role in their respective professional fields,forming a strong analytical network that provided robust support for government strategic decisions and policy-making.They also played a positive role in bridging social divides and connecting the central government with grassroots society.In 2021,the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan and dramatically changed the situation.The introduction of various restrictive measures greatly altered the operating environment for think tanks.Faced with a severely fragmented domestic society,precarious human rights conditions,and the ongoing high-pressure rule of the Taliban,these think tanks must address two key challenges:maintaining their positions under the Taliban’s hardline stance and continuing to advance their normal operations and research work.In the past three years,Afghan think tanks have become experienced significant divergence:some have relocated abroad,some remain steadfast in Afghanistan,and some have ceased operations.In summary,the development of think tanks in Afghanistan not only reflects the changes in Afghan society but also highlights the importance and influence of third-party forces,represented by think tanks,in contemporary national governance and diplomacy.