鄱阳湖生态经济区景观生态风险评价及预测

Landscape Ecological Risk Evaluation and Prediction in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone

该研究以2000、2010和2020年鄱阳湖生态经济区的土地利用数据为基础,使用基于景观格局的景观生态风险评价模型,分析了2000-2020年其景观生态风险的时空演变特征;使用PLUS模型,结合风险指数质心、标准差椭圆,揭示了2030年不同情景下研究区景观生态风险的空间格局。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年,鄱阳湖生态经济区耕地与林地面积不断减少,建设用地成片扩张;整体景观生态风险呈“中间高,四周低”的分布特征,其中高风险区面积最少,降幅最大(22.99%),总体生态风险呈降低态势。(2)与2020年相比,2030年自然发展情景下,研究区高风险区与较高风险区总面积同比增加30.36%,生态风险级别升高;城镇发展情景下,其高风险区面积同比增长150%,生态风险级别显著提升;生态保护情景下,其较高风险区面积同比下降了27.76%,区域生态风险等级下降明显。(3)相较于自然发展情景,城镇发展情景下研究区各级别生态风险呈扩散分布状态,生态保护情景下呈集聚收缩状态;不同情景下,研究区景观生态风险的质心移动方向多变,反映了生态风险变化的复杂性。研究结果可为鄱阳湖生态经济区及类似地区的生态风险防范及土地利用规划提供理论依据。

Based on the land use data of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone in 2000,2010 and 2020,the study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of its landscape ecological risk from 2000 to 2020 using the landscape ecological risk evaluation model based on landscape pattern.The spatial pattern of landscape ecological risk under different scenarios in 2030 was revealed using the PLUS model,combined with the risk index centroid and standard deviation ellipse.The results show that from 2000 to 2020,the area of cultivated land and forest land in the study area has been decreasing,and the land for construction has been expanding rapidly.The ecological risk of the overall landscape is characterized by the distri⁃bution of“high in the middle and low in the surroundings”,in which the area of high-risk zone is the least and the rate of decrease is the greatest(22.99%),and the overall ecological risk is in a decreasing trend.Compared with 2020,there is a total year-on-year increase of 30.36% in the area of high and higher risk zones under the natural development scenario in 2030,with an elevated ecological risk level.Under the urban development scenario,the area of its high-risk zones increased by 150%year-on-year,with a significant elevation of the ecological risk level;under the ecological protection scenario,the area of its higher-risk zones decreased by 27.76% year-on-year,with a significant decline of the ecological risk level of the re⁃gion.Compared with the natural development scenario,the ecological risks at all levels in the study area under the urban devel⁃opment scenario show a diffuse distribution,while the ecological protection scenario shows a clustered contraction.Under dif⁃ferent scenarios,the centroid of landscape ecological risk in the study area moves in many different directions,reflecting the complexity of ecological risk changes.The results of the study can provide theoretical basis for ecological risk prevention and land use planning in the Ecological Economic Zone and similar areas.