基于24Model的地铁内涝事故原因分析与评估

Analysis and evaluation of the causes of subway waterlogging accidents based on 24Model

为降低地铁内涝事故灾害风险,基于事故致因“2-4”模型,分析了地铁内涝事故致灾因子,采用层次分析法构建了地铁内涝事故原因分析指标体系,确定了各风险因子的权重,并利用模糊综合评价法对地铁内涝事故进行了定量评估,识别出关键的影响因素。结果表明:地铁内涝事故一级指标中不安全动作与物态因素最重要,其中影响最大的指标包括擅自更改建筑设计、未按照要求检查水位情况、未及时排水、出入口不符合防汛标准等因素;习惯性不安全行为的权重位居第二,表明该指标因素较为重要,同时安全管理体系得分位居第二,表明该指标因素较易发生。对关键指标采取防范措施,可有效降低风险,从而减少地铁内涝事故的发生。

In order to avoid the disaster risk of subway waterlogging accidents,based on the 24 Model of accident causes,this paper analyzes the disaster factors of subway waterlogging accidents,constructs an analysis index system for the risk causes of subway waterlogging accidents,uses the hierarchical analysis method to determine the weights of risk factors,evaluates the legal quantity according to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and then conducts importance research to identify key influencing factors.The results show that the unsafe action and physical state factors are the most important in the first-level indicators,among which the most influential influencing factors include unauthorized changes in building design,failure to check the water level as required,failure to drain water in time,and entrances and exits that do not meet flood control standards;habitual unsafe behavior is weighted second,and the indicator factor is more important;the average score of the safety management system is secondary,and the impact factor is more likely to occur.Taking preventive measures against key influencing factor indicators can effectively avoid risks,thereby reducing the occurrence of waterlogging accidents in subways.