新疆强对流暴雨的气候特征和概率分布模式研究

A Research on Climatic Characteristics and Probability Distribution Model of Severe Convective Rainstorm in Xinjiang

应用1980～2001年的6h降水量资料和雨量时程方程,首次给出了新疆地区强对流暴雨的划分标准;分析了强对流暴雨的气候特征、大气环流背景、影响系统、变化趋势和概率分布模式;发现,20世纪90年代强对流暴雨次数有明显的增加,Poisson分布拟合强对流暴雨频率分布尚好,还计算了各地每年(雨季)强对流暴雨发生n次以上的概率。

Criterion of severe convective rainstorm in Xinjiang is first given by using 6h rainfall data in the period of 19802001 and rainfall duration equation The Climatic characteristics, atmospheric circulation background, influence system, variation trend and probability distribution model of severe convective rainstorm are analyzed The result shows that, in the1990s, the number of severe convective rainstorms obviously increased and Poisson distribution could fit probability distribution of severe convective rainstorms The annual probability of severe convective rainstorms over n times is also calculated