需求信息预测与处理中的牛鞭效应

Bullwhip Effect in Demand Forecasting and Processing

研究了在不稳定的市场需求下,生产商和零售商所组成的供应链系统中的牛鞭效应存在问题.提出了当零售商采用一次平滑指数法或简单移动平均法获得需求信息的过程中,不存在波动放大现象.证明了在生产商和零售商都采用固定间隔库存策略处理需求信息的过程中,显著存在波动放大现象,从零售商到生产商的信息传递过程中,存在着牛鞭效应现象.需求过程中的牛鞭效应主要是由于生产商和零售商利用各自库存策略处理信息的结果.

This paper aims at addressing the existence of the bullwhip effect for a simple twolevel supply chain comprising a single manufacturer and a single retailer with nonstationary end demand. It shows that the demand variability does not increase when the retailer relies on the simply exponentially weighted moving average or the simple moving average to forecast demand. And the demand variability increases significantly when both the retailer and the manufacturer follow the orderupto inventory policy. There exists the bullwhip effect in the transmitting of demand from the retailer to the manufacturer. The main reason of the bullwhip effect existed in the demand processing is that both the manufacturer and the retailer use their own different inventory policies to process demand.