用电需求曲线建模及其应用

The model of electricity demand curve and its applications

根据需求跟随价格变化的原理,用户的用电数量不是确定不变的。本文借鉴经济学的有关理论,从用户调查入手,阐述了用电需求曲线的数学模型及其参数估计方法。在此基础上,分析了用户的电力需求弹性。特别针对电力企业广泛采用的增供促销措施进行了定量分析,发现这种措施在某些情况下可能失效,由此提出了基于用电需求曲线的区别定价方法,指导电力企业采取合理的价格营销策略。

Electricity demands of consumers are not fixed according to the theory of microeconomics. Electricity price is one of the most important factors affecting electricity demand. From the data of consumer's price survey, the model of electricity demand curve (EDC) is established in this paper. Least Square Method is adopted as the approach of parameter estimation to calculate the parameters in the model. Based on EDC, the price elasticity of electricity demand is analyzed to show the sensitivity to electricity price. Furthermore, a quantitative analysis is given to the well- known strategy of increasing demand by depreciating. The results show that some strategies based on this idea will be invalidated under certain conditions. This leads to an approach of pricing for different consumers according to their EDCs which is useful for the electrical power enterprise to set reasonable marketing strategy. Numerical case studies show that optimal pricing for different consumers is possible and reasonable.