摘要
Using VAR-DCC-GARCH model,the literature on commodity price was extended by exploring the co-movement between Chinese nonferrous metal prices and global nonferrous metal prices represented by the nonferrous metal prices from London Metal Exchange(LME).The results show that LME nonferrous metals prices still have a greater impact on Chinese nonferrous metals prices.However,the impact of Chinese nonferrous metals prices on LME nonferrous metals prices is still weak except for lead price.The co-movement of nonferrous metal prices between LME and China presents hysteretic nature,and it lasts for 7-8trading days.Furthermore,the co-movement between LME nonferrous metals prices and Chinese nonferrous metals prices has the characteristics of time-varying,and the correlation of lead prices between LME and China is the more stable than all other nonferrous metals prices.
运用VAR-DCC-GARCH模型,研究LME金属价格与中国金属价格间的联动效应及其动态相关性。结果表明:LME金属价格依然对中国金属价格有着较大的影响,而中国除了铅价外,其余金属价格对LME金属价格的影响还很微弱;中国铜、铅、锌价格与LME价格间均存在正向的联动性;LME金属价格与中国金属价格之间的联动性在反应时间上存在滞后性,滞后期在7到8个交易日左右;LME金属价格和中国金属价格间的互动影响关系存在时变性,其中,LME铅价与中国铅价间的相互关联最稳定。
基金
Project(71073177)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
Project(12JJ4077)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China
Project(2012zzts002)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds of Central South University,China
