明清时期(1440-1899年)长江中下游地区冬季异常冷暖气候研究

A Study on Abnormal Warm and Cold Winters in the Area of the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Changjiang River during the Ming and Qing Dynasty (1440-1899)

本文以长江中下游地区的七个省市为研究对象 ,利用方志资料 ,在有记载的年份中从各省市每年只取一条资料 ,按照资料冷暖程度分别赋予一定的值 ,以十年为单位 ,将这些值相加 ,然后将所得的总数除以 10 ,本文称之为温度指数 ,共得到 4 6个温度指数值 ,取其平均数 1.7为参数 ,大致可将明清时期 (14 4 0年到 1899年 )冬季异常气候变化的过程分为三个暖时段 ,即 14 4 0 -14 89年 ,15 2 0 - 16 19年和 172 0 - 1789年 ;三个冷时段即 14 90 - 15 19年 ,16 2 0 - 1719年和 1790 -1899年。无论在暖时段还是冷时段 ,总存在着与之相反的极端个别或一些年份的冷或暖的回旋。如在第二个暖时段中 15 6 0年至 15 6 9年、第三个暖时段中 174 1至 174 6年冷冬的回旋和在第二个冷时段中 170 0至 170 9年、第三个冷时段中 185 0至 185

This essay deals with the abnormal climate changes in the winter of seven administrative provinces or municipality in the area of the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River from 1440 to 1899(the Ming and Qing dynasty in Chinese history). Three warmer (from 1440 to1489, 1520 to1619 and 1720 to 1789) and three colder periods (from1490 to 1519, 1620 to 1719 and 1790to 1899) can be divided based on analyzing on 803 abnormal warm and cold winter records selected from local historical gazettes(Di Fang Zhi). The data processing and analyzing is as following: First, choose only one typical record from each province or municipality from the recorded year and the total number of the records comes to 803. Then quantify each descriptive record based on its warm or cold quality. The numeral ranges from 3 to -2. The bigger the numeral was, the colder it means. Later on sum these numerals within every ten years and divide them with 10 to get an average that is named as 'temperature index'. There are 46 temperature indices in total. Based on the average of these temperature indices which is about 1.7, this essay divides the period from 1440 to 1899 into three warmer periods with an average temperature index lesser than 1.7 and three colder periods more than 1.7. It also needs to be pointed out that in whatever period there exist fluctuations with converse warm or cold years. For example, during the second warmer period, 1560 to 1569 appeared as apparent cold winters and during the second colder period, 1701to 1709 seemed to be warm winters.