牛鞭效应与生产平滑模型有效性问题

Bullwhip effect and validity of production-smoothing model

评述国内外关于牛鞭效应和与之紧密相关的生产平滑模型有效性问题的研究进展,也扼要地叙述作者在这个领域所做的部分工作.作者的工作将国际上对牛鞭效应的研究从特殊时间序列下的两阶段模型拓展到一般ARIMA时间序列下的多阶段模型,并以此为基础分析了需求信息在供应链中传播的一般规律.这些规律的发现扩展了牛鞭效应研究的一些经典结论,揭示了一些新颖现象的存在,并为彻底解决国际学术界长达20年的关于生产平滑模型有效性问题的争论提供了可能.最后,指出几个相关的研究问题,希望中国学者能在这一领域的研究中取得重要突破.

This article reviews the main progress in studying the bullwhip effect in supply chains and the argument about the validity of the production-smoothing model. Some of our very recent achievements in these two areas are also introduced. Our work integrates a general ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) demand process into a multi-stage supply chain, and by the integrated model studies systematically the propagation rules of the demand information flow. The findings of these propagation rules revoke some classical conclusions on the bullwhip effect, reveal some important and novel phenomena and provide a reasonable explain on the validity of the production-smoothing model. Three questions are also asked for further investigations in the field.