中国地质灾害气象预警初步研究

Meteorological early warning of geo-hazards in Chinabased on raining forecast

根据致灾地质环境条件和气候因素,将中国划分为7个大区、28个预警区。根据对历史时期所发生的地质灾害点和灾害发生之前15日内实际降水量及降水过程的统计分析,创建了地质灾害气象预警等级判据模式图,初步制作了各预警区的预报预警判据图;根据检索到的研究资料建立了部分预警区的判据校正图。据此,在每天收到中国国家气象中心发来的全国降雨预报数据和图像半小时内,对所预报的次日降雨过程是否诱发地质灾害和诱发灾害的空间范围、危害强度进行预报预警。2003年的试验运行表明,地质灾害气象预警在技术上是可行的,能够为主动减灾做出贡献。

Based on the geo-environmental conditions and climate factors causing hazards, the mainland of China is divided into seven regions, twenty-eight early-warning subregions. According to the statistic analysis of the actual rainfall and raining process fifteen days before geo-hazards occurred at sites of occurrence of geo-hazards in the history, a criterion drawing curve for geo-hazard early warning is developed and a series of preliminary forecast-warning criterion diagrams of various subregions are constructed; in addition, warning criterion correction diagrams of some warning subregions are constructed according the existing data. On that basis, we are able to forecast the probability of geo-hazards induced by the raining process in the next day and the spatial extent and severity of the induced geo-hazards within half an hour after the rain forecast data and images issued by the China National Meteorological Center are received daily. Trial operations in 2003 show that geo-hazards early warning is feasible and practicable in scientific methodology and can make contribution to the mitigation of disasters in China′s mainland.