成都市产业转型升级测度及优化对策分析

Measurement of Industrial Transformation and Upgrading in Chengdu and Analysis of Optimization Countermeasures

产业转型升级对推动经济高质量跨越发展起着非常重要的作用,在文献综述相关概念及理论基础的阐释基础上,首先,运用成都市2006~2020年间的产业各指标统计数据,使用产业结构年均变动值、借鉴Moore值对成都市产业结构变动速率和产业结构调整速率进行测度。此后,使用产业比重变化系数以及产业结构超前系数等模型定量测度成都市产业转型升级的方向。研究结果表明:“十一五时期”,成都市产业结构优化升级速度较慢,“十二五”时期产业结构变动最快,而“十三五时期”产业结构变动有所放缓,不过仍是呈现高速优化状态。在转型升级的方向上,第一产业的比重各时期都下降,发展十分滞后,而第二产业的比重波动中升降,“十一五”时期是超前发展,其余时期的发展基本处于落后状态,2006~2010是发展速度最快的时期;2006~2010年期间,第三产业发展相对其他时期滞后,但从“十一五”到“十三五”期间都是超前发展,2011~2015年期间发展最快。为加快推动成都市产业结构升级与优化,提出应加强地区辐射作用,推动区域间产业平衡发展;开拓创新,以高新技术产业带动产业结构整体升级;明确产业结构优化方向,加快产业结构优化速率的对策建议。

Industrial transformation and upgrading plays a very important role in promoting high-quality economic development. On the basis of literature review, first of all, based on the statistical data of industrial indicators in Chengdu from 2006 to 2020, this paper measures the rate of change of industrial structure and the rate of adjustment of industrial structure by using the average annual change of industrial structure and Moore value. Then, the paper quantitatively measures the direction of industrial transformation and upgrading in Chengdu by using such models as the change coefficient of industrial proportion and the leading coefficient of industrial structure. The results show that the speed of upgrading and optimizing the industrial structure of Chengdu is slow during the 11th five-year plan period, the industrial structure changes the fastest during the 12th five-year plan period, and the industrial structure changes slow down during the 13th five-year plan period, but it is still in a state of high-speed optimization. In the direction of transformation and upgrading, the proportion of the primary industry has declined in all periods, and development has lagged behind, while the proportion of the secondary sector of the economy industry has fluctuated. During the 11th five-year plan period, the proportion of the primary industry has advanced, almost all of the other periods are lagging, with the fastest growth occurring between 2006 and 2010, and the tertiary sector of the economy between 2006 and 2010 lags behind the rest of the period, but from the “11th five-year plan” to the “13th five-year plan” period are advanced development, 2011~2015 period, the fastest development. In order to speed up the upgrading and optimization of the industrial structure in Chengdu, it is suggested that the regional radiation should be strengthened to promote the balanced development of inter-regional industries;at the same time, through innovation, high-tech industry can drive the overall upgrading of industrial structure. We should clarify the direction of industrial structure optimization and speed up the rate of industrial structure optimization.