中国经济波动的来源及其传导机制——基于供给、需求和金融冲击类型的考察

The Source and Transmission Mechanism of China’s Economic Fluctuation——Investigation based on Supply,Demand and Financial Shocks

基于2003~2021年的季度数据,建立一个符号约束的贝叶斯SVAR模型,从供给、需求和金融状况三个角度,考察中国经济波动的来源及其影响,结果发现,除了供给冲击和需求冲击外,金融冲击也是中国经济波动的来源之一,不同时期经济波动的来源是不一样的,试图仅仅通过放松金融环境来消除供给端的结构型矛盾是不可持续的。金融冲击容易诱发长期的高通胀,因此,在制定宏观经济政策时,必须考虑可能存在的金融冲击的影响,对各种冲击采取不同的对策,对放松金融环境持审慎态度。应通过改革和创新等手段,不断推动供给冲击上行。

Based on the quarterly data from 2003 to 2021,this paper establishes the Bayesian SVAR model with sign restrictions to investigate the source and impact of China’s economic fluctuation from the perspectives of supply,demand and financial conditions.The results show that in addition to supply shock and demand shock,financial shock is also the source of China’s economic fluctuation and the sources of economic fluctuations are different in different periods.It is not sustainable to try to eliminate structural contradictions on the supply side simply by relaxing the financial environment.Financial shocks tend to induce long-term high inflation.Therefore,we must consider the impact of possible financial shocks when making macroeconomic policies;Take different countermeasures according to various impacts;Be cautious about relaxing the financial environment;Continue to push the supply shock upward through reform and innovation.