基于MaxEnt生态位模型预测蒙药白益母草潜在分布研究

Prediction of Potential Distribution of Mongolian Medicine Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica Based on MaxEnt Niche Model

目的:对蒙药白益母草基原植物脓疮草Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica进行适宜性分布研究,为其资源保护和合理开发利用提供参考。方法:利用近年来采集到的96个脓疮草分布信息,采用MaxEnt生态位模型,结合当代和2050年SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5情景下的19个生物气候数据,预测脓疮草在我国的潜在分布区域及适生等级。结果:MaxEnt模型精度评价AUC值为0.983,表明模型运算准确度高,分析结果可靠;脓疮草的生长主要受年均温、温度季节性变化、温度年较差、最冷季度均温和最湿月降水量的影响;脓疮草当代潜在分布区面积占全国总面积6.86%。最佳适生区占全国总面积1.74%。在2050年SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5气候条件下,脓疮草潜在分布区面积占全国总面积分别为10.41%,8.38%,最佳适生区占全国总面积分别为1.31%、0.87%。结论:脓疮草当代主要分布在内蒙古自治区阿拉善左旗、鄂尔多斯市等区域。2050年SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5气候条件下,脓疮草最佳适生区面积减小,并呈现向北迁移的趋势,故应该加强脓疮草资源保护工作,以防止其资源趋于濒危。

Objective:To study the suitability distribution of Mongolian medicine Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica,so as to provide reference for its resource protection and rational development and utilization.Methods:Based on 96 distribution informations of Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica collected in recent years,combined with the 19 bioclimatic data under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in the present and 2050,the potential distribution regions and suitable levels of Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica in China were predicted by using the MaxEnt niche model.Results:The AUC value of MaxEnt model accuracy evaluation was 0.983,which showed that the model calculation accuracy was high,and the analysis results were reliable.The growth of Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica was mainly affected by annual average temperature,seasonal variation of temperature,annual difference of temperature,average temperature in the coldest season and precipitation in the wettest month.The area of potential distribution of Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica occupied 6.86%of the total area of China.The optimum suitable area accounted for 1.74%of the total area of the country.Under the climate conditions of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in 2050,the potential distribution area of Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica was 10.41%,8.38%of the total area of China,respectively,and the optimal suitable area was 1.31%,0.87%of the total area of China,respectively.Conclusion:Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica is mainly distributed in Alashan Left Banner and Ordos City of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,etc.Under the climate conditions of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in 2050,the areas of the best suitable growing areas of Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica decrease and show a trend of northward migration.Therefore,the protection of Panzerina lanata var.alaschanica should be strengthened to prevent it from becoming endangered.