蒙汉民族混居地区生育水平的代际差异和趋同性研究——基于内蒙古地区的实证

A Study on the Intergenerational Difference and Convergence of Fertility Level in the Overlapping Areas of Mongolian and Han Ethnic Group——Case Study on Mongolian Area

蒙汉民族混居地区蒙古族和汉族的生育水平出现了既下降又趋同的现象,这种现象体现出明显的代际差异。从代际的角度论证蒙汉民族混居地区生育水平的趋同性,可以探索生育变化的长期规律。以2013—2015年内蒙古自治区的分层抽样数据为基础,从生育数量、存活数量、男孩生育数量和女孩生育数量等角度对民族混居地区生育水平的代际差异和趋同性进行实证分析,结果发现:在控制政策变量的情况下,根据伊斯特林模型的估计结果,发现收入在祖孙三代生育数量、生育男孩数量和生育女孩数量方面存在明显的差异,收入导致生育水平的代际差异比较明显。调查对象及其祖父母的收入与生育的关系呈现线性关系,而调查对象父母的收入和生育的关系则呈现U型关系。在加入政策变量之后,无论对照组为祖父母,作用组为调查对象;对照组为祖父母,作用组为父母还是对照组为蒙古族,作用组为汉族都显示计划生育政策显著影响生育水平。蒙古族和汉族居民生育水平及其影响因素出现了趋同性的特征,共同的显著性影响因素主要是家庭财富,即民族间生育水平的差异主要是由经济收入所导致,经济发展是生育水平趋于一致的主要原因。要想达到改善人口结构,提高生育水平的目的,需要直接和间接提高个体及其家庭的收入水平和人力资本,将生育的家庭担负向社会担负转变。

The fertility level of the Mongolian and Han ethnic group in the overlapping-living area of the Mongolian and Han ethnic region has declined in a similar pattern,a phenomenon expressing apparent intergenerational differences.The long-term law of the change of fertility can be explored from the perspective of convergence of fertility level in the overlapping area of the Mongolian and Han ethnic groups.Basing on the stratified sampling data of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region from 2013 through 2015,this article makes an empirical analysis on the intergenerational differences and convergence of fertility levels in ethnic mixed areas from the perspectives of fertility quantity,survival quantity,boy fertility number and girl fertility number.Results indicate that under the condition of controlling policy variables,according to the estimated results of Easterlin model,income causes significant intergenerational difference in fertility level.The relationship between income and fertility of the subjects and their grandparents was linear,while the relationship between the income and fertility of the parents showed a U-shaped curve.When policy variable is taken into account,results indicate family planning policies significantly affect fertility levels.The fertility level and its influencing factors of Mongolian and Han residents have shown feature of convergence.The common significant impact elements lie mainly on family wealth,or in other words,the difference of fertility level between ethnic groups is mainly caused by difference in economic income.In order to improve population structure and raise fertility level,it needs to directly or indirectly increase income level and human capital of individuals and their families,and to transform the reproduction responsibility from family to social level.