贸易视角下中国外来植物的变化及其增长预测

Changes and growth forecast of invasive plants in China from the perspective of trade

自改革开放以来,我国在整个世界经济体系中已经取得举足轻重的地位,与世界各国的经贸往来愈发频繁,伴随而来的植物入侵对我国的自然、社会和经济造成了极大的负面影响。有效管理植物入侵已然成为我国亟待解决的一个难题。本研究通过调研期刊、专著和数据库等资料,以我国各省已有外来植物数量及贸易相关数据为基础,首先分析我国各省区进口总额与外来入侵植物数量的相关性,然后采用S型曲线对各省2018年至2021年进口总额进行模拟,最后基于模拟结果预测各省外来植物的数量,并对各省外来植物种类的增加量进行预测。结果表明:自改革开放以来,我国外来植物种类随着贸易量的不断增加也在迅速增长,至2017年底已有562种,其中有意传入占比为65%,无意传入占比为33%,自然入侵仅占2%;外来植物的分布呈现由沿海向内陆依次递减的趋势。预测结果表明我国在未来仍面临大规模的外来植物入侵风险。截至2021年,广西、云南、浙江、福建、广东、海南、河南、湖南、陕西、四川、江西、安徽、黑龙江等13省及自治区外来种增量最高,将高于19种,而青海、甘肃、山西、宁夏等4省及自治区外来种增量将低于10种;并且入侵热点地区呈现出由南方及沿海地区向中部地区扩散的趋势。

Since the reform and opening up,China has achieved a pivotal position in the world economic system,and its economic and trade exchanged with the rest of the world have become more frequent.The exotic plants that were introduced with the international trade have caused great damages to China’s nature,society and economy.The invasion of exotic plants has become an urgent problem in China.Based on the journals,monographs,and related databases,the number of exotic plants and the data related with trade of provinces in China were collected.The relationship between the number of exotic plants and the total imports for each province was studied.S-model was used to predict the total import of each province from 2018 to 2021.Finally,based on the simulation results,the number of invasive plants and the increase in the number of invasive plants in each province were predicted.The results showed that the number of exotic plants increased rapidly with the increase of trade since the reform and opening up.There were 562 exotic plants in China by the end of 2017.Among them,the intentional introduction accounted for 65%,the unintentional introduction accounted for 33%,and the natural invasion accounted for only 2%.The distribution of exotic plants showed a decreasing trend from the coast to inland.The results show that China still faces the risk of large-scale alien plant invasion in the future.By 2021,the exotic plants of Guangxi,Yunnan,Zhejiang,Fujian,Guangdong,Hainan,Henan,Hunan,Shaanxi,Sichuan,Jiangxi,Anhui and Heilongjiang provinces have the highest increments,which will be more than 19 species.The increase of invasive species in Qinghai,Gansu,Shanxi and Ningxia provinces will be less than 10.Invasion hotspots show a tendency to spread from the south and coastal areas to the central areas.