“地王”频现、信号传递与房价上涨——基于双重差分的实证检验

High-priced Land Transaction,Signal Transmission and Rising Housing Price:An Empirical Test Based on DID Method

土地市场"地王"频现,其热度信号传递到住房市场,对房价产生的拉动效应含有丰富的市场信息及政策含义。本文基于行为经济学中的信号传递理论和锚定效用理论,分析了土地热度信号传递效应的作用机制。以上海市146宗住宅用地出让为研究事件,基于双重差分思想,采用十万量级的住房交易数据,实证检验了高溢价和高单价"地王"信号传递对周边房价拉动效应的强弱及特征。研究发现,溢价率超过1的高溢价"地王"平均拉高周边房价4.4%,空间辐射广度为3千米,时间持续长度为4个月。楼面价高于周边房价的高单价"地王"平均拉高周边房价6.6%,并且高单价"地王"热度信号传递具有显现时间更快、持续时间更长、强度更大的特点。

According to the signal transmit theory and the anchoring effect theory,which is based on Behavior Economics,the price signals in land market will cause the housing price movement.High-priced land transaction is considered as containing new information,which may transmit to residential market and induce the growth of the housing price,known as the pulling effect.Using the data of 146 residential land transactions and more than one hundred thousand housing transactions in Shanghai from January 2010 to February 2016,the paper tests the pulling effect of land price signals on housing price with the difference-in-difference model.The results show that a high-premium land transaction with a premium rate of more than one provides a positive shock to the nearby housing market and results in 4.4%growth of housing price on the average.The space radiation range of the pulling effect is 3 km and the duration of the pulling effect is about 4 months.The high-priced land transaction with floor price higher than the surrounding housing prices pulls up the surrounding housing price by 6.6%.Compared with the high-premium lands,the pull effect of the high-priced land transaction has faster speed,longer duration and greater strength.