系统性金融风险关键成因及其演化机理分析——基于文献挖掘法

An Analysis of the Key Causes and Evolution Mechanism of Systemic Financial Risk——Based on Literature Mining Method

历史上几乎每一次金融危机都是系统性金融风险的爆发,每次危机爆发之后都有大量学者对金融危机的成因进行研究,形成了丰富的研究结论。本文采用质性研究方法,系统考察金融危机成因的研究结论,归纳金融危机爆发的共识性关键成因,总结系统性金融风险爆发的一般机理过程,探究系统性金融风险爆发的共性核心风险源。本文选择时间跨度为1978-2017年间的,被Elsevier、JSTOR、SSRN、Springer、ProQuest、中国知网(CNKI)等文献数据库收录的有关系统性金融风险和金融危机成因的194篇文献为研究对象,采用扎根理论方法进行归纳总结。研究结果显示,第一,现有文献共包括8个金融危机爆发的共识性关键成因:金融创新过度、外部监管体制的失效、全球经济结构失衡、经济发展弊端、资本主义体制的矛盾、宽松的货币政策、金融机构内部风险管理机制失效和投资者情绪。第二,关键成因的构成观点中有54.84%的观点与"资产价格泡沫"形成直接相关,这些观点涵盖了系统性金融风险成因机理演化框架的宏观政策、中观市场机制以及微观个体行为三个方面,在此基础上构建了"资产价格泡沫为核心的系统性金融风险成因机理演化框架"。第三,金融创新不仅是系统性金融风险最关键的成因,同样在资产价格泡沫的形成过程中也最为重要。

Almost every financial crisis in history is the outbreak of systemic financial risks.After each financial crisis,many researchers devote themselves to exploring the causes of systemic risks and so far they have reached a lot of meaningful conclusions.This paper provides an overview of researches on this topic based on qualitative research method and manages to(i)sort out the key driving causes that are most commonly identified in the researches;(ii)summarize the general evolution mechanism;and(iii)explore core risk sources of systemic financial risks.We use grounded theory to review 194 articles published between 1978 and 2017 in the databases such as Elsevier,JSTOR,SSRN,Springer,ProQuest and China Knowledge Network(CNKI).First,we find eight key driving causes of systemic financial risks,namely:excessive financial innovation,failures in financial regulation and supervision,global economic structural imbalance,shortcomings of economic development model,contradictions of capitalism,lax monetary policy,failures of corporate governance and risk management,and investor sentiment.Second,according to the statistics,about 54.84%views regarding the key driving causes are directly related to the formation of"asset price bubble"and these opinions cover 3 key role players in the systemic risk forming mechanism evolution framework:macro-policy,market mechanism and microscopic individual behavior.On this basis,we build an evolution mechanism framework for analyzing the causes of systemic financial risks with asset price bubble as the core.Third,we highlight the importance of financial innovation to both systemic risk and the formation of asset price bubbles.