频率匹配Hald模型在非伤寒沙门菌感染散发病例归因中的应用研究

Source attribution for sporadic nontyphoidal Salmonella cases using the frequencymatching Hald model

目的探索频率匹配模型在食源性致病菌食物归因中的应用,识别导致我国某省2016—2020年非伤寒沙门菌(NTS)感染散发病例的主要食物来源,为精准防控提供科学依据。方法通过食源性疾病监测报告系统和食品污染物风险监测系统收集并整理患者和食物来源NTS血清型数据,采用Hald模型,纳入病例和食物共有的血清型开展归因分析。结果NTS感染散发病例归因于畜肉的比例最高,为35.67%,其中猪肉的贡献比例高达22.37%;其次是蛋及蛋制品,归因比例为33.83%;归因于禽肉和水产动物的比例分别是19.28%和11.22%。通过归因识别发现单相鼠伤寒可能是导致该省NTS病例的优势血清型。结论采用Hald模型获得猪肉是某省NTS感染散发病例的重要病因食品,为该省NTS的污染控制提供了线索,为应用频率匹配模型解决散发病例归因问题提供了范式,该模型可拓展应用于对其他省份感染散发病例的归因研究。

Objective This study aimed to provide scientific evidence for precise prevention measures by utilizing a frequency matching model to identify the primary food sources contributing to sporadic cases of nontyphoidal Salmonella(NTS)in a Chinese province from 2016 to 2020.Methods Data on NTS serotypes from both patients and food sources were collected and analyzed through the Foodborne Disease Surveillance Report System and the Food Contaminant Risk Surveillance System.Source attribution was determined using the Hald model,considering serotypes common to human cases and food sources.Results The analysis revealed that livestock meat was responsible for 35.67%of NTS sporadic cases,with pork contributing significantly at 22.37%.Eggs and egg products accounted for 33.83%of NTS sporadic cases,while poultry and aquatic animals contributed 19.28%and 11.22%,respectively.According to the source attribution analysis,monophasic Salmonella typhimurium appeared to be the dominant serotype causing NTS cases in the province.Conclusion This study concluded that pork plays a crucial role as an etiological food source for sporadic NTS cases in the province,as determined by the Hald model.These findings provide valuable insights into the prevention and control of NTS-related contamination.Moreover,the application of frequency matching models to address source attribution in sporadic cases can be extended to other provinces for similar investigations.