快速微生物定量风险评估工具及其改进在海产品中副溶血性弧菌风险分级中应用

Application and improvement of swift quantitative microbiological risk assessment 2 tool in risk ranking of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in different categories of seafood

目的使用快速微生物定量风险评估(sQMRA2)工具对海产品中副溶血性弧菌(Vibrio parahaemolyticus,VP)风险开展定量分级,观察预测模型的选择对sQMRA2分级结果的影响。方法利用sQMRA2工具,综合2017年大连市海产品微生物监测数据、海产品消费量调查数据、海产品储存/交叉污染/烹调习惯等专家咨询数据,对大连市不同"海产品-致病性VP"组合开展定量风险分级。通过改变"食品-致病微生物"组合的生长和灭活模型表达式对sQMRA2工具加以改进,观察预测模型的改变对分级结果的影响。结果sQMRA2工具定量风险分级结果发现,"虾类-致病性VP"组合导致的每餐发病风险和发病人数最高,分别为1.2×10-5和5000人。改变生长和灭活预测模型表达式可在一定程度上影响sQMRA2工具的风险分级结果。结论虾类是导致大连市普通人群2017年6~9月感染VP的高风险食品,交叉污染是各种组合导致人体感染VP的主要途径,使用风险分级工具时需要考虑预测模型的影响。

Objective This research was to conduct quantitative microbial risk ranking of Vibrio parahaemolyticus(VP)in different categories of seafood using swift quantitative microbiological risk assessment 2(sQMRA2)and to evaluate the impact of predictive model on the risk ranking result.Methods Based on the monitoring data of pathogenic microorganisms in seafood,the dietary consumption data,and parameters for storage,cross-contamination and cooking habits obtained from expert consultation in Dalian City in 2017,a deterministic quantitative risk ranking was conducted for different seafoodpathogenic VP combinations using s QMRA2 tool.Besides,the tool was improved by applying specific predictive models for different combinations to evaluate its influence on the final result.Results Shrimp-pathogenic VP combination had the highest per serving risk(1.2×10-5)and lead to the highest number of cases(5000)among all the combinations.Predictive model had influence on the risk ranking result of the s QMRA2 tool.Conclusion Shrimp was the high-risk seafood leading to the incidence of VP in Dalian City from June to September in 2017.Avoiding cross contamination was the key to reduce the risk of VP in seafood.It was necessary to pay attention to the impact of predictive model on the result of risk ranking tool.