《志愿服务记录与证明出具办法(试行)》的政策效果预评估

A Pre-Evaluation of the Policy Effects of “Volunteer Service Recording and Certificate Issuing Measures (for Trial Implementation)”

文章利用马-萨综合模型,对新近出台且将于2021年2月1日起实施的《志愿服务记录与证明出具办法(试行)》的实施效果进行了预评估。评估发现,该文件的出台无助于改变目前志愿服务记录制度执行效果欠佳的不利局面。就政策问题本身而言,虽技术简单可用和目标群体行为改变不大都是有利因素,但目标群体的巨大规模和强异质性都是不利因素。就法规建构执行能力而言,虽政策本身连贯一致是有利因素,但政策目标和政策手段之间缺乏因果联系、未设定执行机构和未配置执行人员等都极为不利。就非法规因素而言,高层重视是有利条件,社会经济环境却利弊兼具,而媒体的不关注、公众的不支持、利益团体的冷漠和执行官员的无助均很不利于政策目标的达成。

Using the M-S Integrated Model,this paper pre-evaluates the implementation effects of the"Volunteer Service Recording and Certificate Issuing Measures(for Trial Implementation)"that has recently been issued and will be implemented from February 1 st,2021.The evaluation found that the issue of this document will not help to change the poor performance of the existing voluntary service recording system.As far as the tractability of the policy problem is concerned,the simplicity and availability of technology and the little extent of behavioral change required for the target group are both favorable factors,but the huge size and strong heterogeneity of the target group are both disadvantageous factors.As far as the ability of the statue to structure implementation is concerned,the consistency of the policy itself is a favorable factor,but the lack of causality between policy objectives and means,as well as the absence of enforcement agencies and personnel are extremely unfavorable.As far as non-statutory factors are concerned,high-level attention of the government is favorable,and the socio-economic environment brings both pros and cons,while the lack of media attention and public support,the indifference of interest groups,and the helplessness of executive officials are all non-conducive factors for achieving policy goals.