社会经济史量化研究的挑战与机遇

Challenges and Opportunities in Quantitative Research on Socioeconomic History

近年来,随着数字人文技术的勃兴,有关量化方法对历史学价值的问题再次引发了学界讨论。量化史学作为数字人文谱系中的一支,经历了长期的发展。历史学和量化方法的联系曾引起过学界激烈的反对或默许。从20世纪四五十年代起,关于量化方法在历史学中的运用经历了多次辩论。将"数据"和"量化"放在历史学历次范式转移和知识转型的过程中,梳理"社会史""文化史"和"数字人文历史"对量化方法的认知和使用,可以更好地理解和展望"数字计算"和"数字人文"为历史学学科带来的挑战和机遇。随着历史学的历次转向和量化工具的不断调试,历史学家从早期对"硬数据"和宏观"社会结构"的信念,转向了"社会网络""理性选择"等微观世界的重构。受中外史学传统的影响,中国的量化史学发展呈现出更多的可能性和更丰富的面相。数字人文技术下的量化研究已然成为近年来中国社会经济史的一个新的增长点。

In recent years,with the boom in digital technologies in the humanities,the value of quantitative analysis to the discipline of history has once again sparked academic discussion.As a branch of the digital humanities,cliometrics has undergone a long period of development,during which the association of history with quantitative methods aroused vehement opposition or tacit acquiescence.From the’40 s and’50 son,a multitude of debates have arisen over the use quantitative methods in historiography.In this paper,we try to explore"data"and"quantification"over the course of successive historiographical paradigm shifts and knowledge transformations,sorting through the awareness and use of quantitative methods in social history,cultural history and the"digital humanities,"to achieve a better understanding of and outlook on the challenges and opportunities for historiography brought by"digital calculation"and the"digital humanities."Accompanying historiography’s many changes of direction and the constant adjustment of quantitative instruments,historians have moved from their earlier belief in hard data and the macro-social structure to reconstruction of the micro-world of social networks,rational choice,etc.Influenced by both the Chinese and the Western historical tradition,cliometrics in China is exhibiting more possibilities and richer aspects.Quantitative research using digital humanities technology has become a new growth point for Chinese socioeconomic history.