“两个一百年”奋斗目标之间的经济发展:任务、挑战与应对方略

Economic Development between the Two Centenary Goals:Tasks,Challenges and Strategies

新中国成立之后尤其是改革开放以来,中国取得了举世瞩目的增长奇迹,全面建成小康社会的第一个百年奋斗目标取得伟大历史性成就。面对迈向第二个百年奋斗目标的新征程,中国需要明确经济发展的四大阶段性任务:"十四五"时期末真正跨越"中等收入陷阱",跻身高收入国家行列;到2035年人均实际GDP较2020年翻一番,达到中等发达国家水平;到2050年人均实际GDP较2020年翻两番,达到发达国家平均水平;持续扩大中等收入群体规模,基本实现全体人民共同富裕。不过在此过程中,中国将面临经济增长动力减弱、增长速度与增长质量之间存在矛盾、中等收入群体收入增速较快下滑以及外部环境趋于复杂四大挑战。为此,中国需要从充分发挥特色优势、合理规划发展路径、贯彻新发展理念与构建新发展格局,以及加快推进中国经济学理论体系建设等四个维度构建迈向第二个百年奋斗目标的新方略。

Since the founding of the PRC in 1949,and especially since reform and opening up,China has achieved miraculous economic growth,to the surprise of the world.The first centenary goal,building a moderately prosperous society in all respects,has been completed.Faced with the second centenary goal,China needs to make clear the four-stage task of economic development.First,to vault over the middle-income trap and become one of the high-income countries at the end of the 14 th Five-Year Plan.Second,to double real GDP per capita from the 2020 level and reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035.Third,to quadruple real GDP per capita from the 2020 level and reach the average level of developed countries by 2050.Fourth,to sustain the expansion of the size of middle-income groups and basically achieve common prosperity for all the people.In this process,China will face four major challenges:the weakening momentum of economic growth,the contradiction between the speed and quality of growth,the declining rate of income growth among middle-income groups and a more challenging external environment.Therefore,in order to build a new strategy for the second centenary goal,China needs to make full use of its unique advantages,make a rational plan for further development,implement new development concepts and construct new development patterns,and accelerate the construction of China’s system of economic theory.