生育转变的多重推动力:从亚洲看中国

Multiple Drivers of Fertility Transition:China as Seen from Asia

中国在半个世纪内完成了生育率从高到低的转变,低生育率已持续多年。中国的生育转变和亚洲诸多国家/地区相似,社会经济发展和政府主导的计划生育都起到了重要作用。中国的生育率下降虽起步相对较晚,但速度反超多数亚洲国家。回顾中国生育转变进程和主要推动力,反思政府主导的政策干预在生育转变不同阶段所发挥的作用,可充分认识低生育率时代更为错综复杂的生育影响因素,有助于把握应对低生育率的政策导向。

China has witnessed a transition from high to low fertility rates within half a century,with low fertility persisting over many years.The fertility transition in China is very similar to that of many other Asian countries/regions where socioeconomic development and government family planning have played an important role.Although the decline in China’s fertility rate started relatively late,its speed has surpassed that of most Asian countries.Through reviewing the process and the main drivers of China’s fertility transition and reflecting on the role of government policy interventions in different stages of the transition,we can gain a fuller understanding of the more complex factors influencing fertility in the low fertility era and a better grasp of the policy orientation required to deal with it.