陪审员决策的认知理论——故事模式

A Cognitive Theory of Juror Decision Making:The Story Model

以贝叶斯概率等代数模型描述陪审员的思维过程,是揭示陪审员司法决策研究的主流方法,但其较难在法学领域占据主导地位,并相对缺乏经验研究支持,对此心理学也缺乏普遍且统一的讨论。为从心理学视角描述陪审员决策的认知过程,本文构建“故事模式”以及覆盖率、融贯性、独特性和拟合度等四项确定性原则,其中“故事模式”包含构建故事、学习决策以及达成决策等三部分,并结合模拟案例“马萨诸塞州联邦诉约翰逊案”进行释明。最后,通过访谈及识别测试等实证研究证实,陪审员构建故事可以对证据进行解释性的组织和加工,对决策信念起到重要的中介作用,“故事模式”能够较好解释和预测刑事案件中陪审员的决策。

Describing jurors’thought processes in terms of algebraic models,such as Bayesian probability,is the dominant approach in studies revealing jurors'judicial decision-making,but it is less likely to dominate the field of jurisprudence and is relatively unsupported by empirical research,and there is a lack of generalized and unified discussion of the psychology of this.In order to describe the cognitive process of juror decision-making from a psychological perspective,this article constructs the Story Model and four Certainty Principles including coverage,coherence,uniqueness,and goodness-of-fit,in which the Story Model contains three parts:constructing a story,learning verdict definitions,and making a decision.The Story Model is illustrated with the simulated trail“Commonwealth of Massachusetts v.Johnson”.Finally,this article confirms through empirical research such as interviews and recognition tests that jurors'story construction can provide explanatory organization and processing of evidence,which plays an important role in mediating decision-making beliefs,and that the Story Model can better explain and predict jurors'decision-making in criminal cases.