基于多参数相关退化的导弹雷达导引头竞争失效状态预测

Multi-parameter Related Degraded Competition Failure State Prediction of Missile Radar Seeker

贮存状态下导弹雷达导引头的失效是退化失效和突发失效竞争的结果,针对多元相关退化量的竞争失效预测问题,在分析导弹雷达导引头失效特性的基础上,建立了多参数相关退化的竞争失效状态预测模型。针对性能退化数据小样本、非线性和不确定性的特点,采用基于量子粒子群优化的相关向量机预测模型对其分布参数进行预测;考虑到突发失效与退化失效之间的相关性,结合改进熵权法描述突发失效发生概率与退化数据间的相关关系;最后借助Copula函数刻画导弹雷达导引头内部失效的相关性,进而建立竞争失效预测模型,实现下一阶段导弹雷达导引头的失效状态的预测。以贮存状态下的某批导弹雷达导引头为例,通过与其他预测方法的对比,验证了本文模型的合理性和优越性。

The failure of missile radar seekers in storage is the result of degraded failure and sudden failure competition.Aiming at the competitive failure prediction problem of multi-correlated degradation,a multi-parameter related degraded competition failure state prediction model is thus established based on the analysis of missile radar seeker failure characteristics.Aiming at the small-sample,nonlinear,and uncertain characteristics of the degraded data,the regression vector predictor based on quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to predict the distributed parameter sequence.Taking into account the correlation between sudden and degraded failure,the improved entropy weight method is applied to describe the correlation between the sudden failure probability and the degradation data.Finally,the Copula function is used to describe the internal correlation of the missile radar seeker,and then the competitive failure prediction model is established to predict the failure state of the missile radar seeker at the next stage.A certain batch of missile radar seekers in storage is taken as an example to verify the rationality and superiority of the proposed model by comparison with other prediction methods.