摘要
为了探讨黑龙江省农业气象灾害对大豆产量的影响,基于1974—2016年黑龙江省农业气象灾害以及大豆产量的数据,采用数理统计方法,分析黑龙江省农业气象灾害和大豆产量时序变化特征。建立基于灰色关联分析法的数理模型,引入受灾范围和灾害强度构建受灾比率,以1998年为节点,将研究期划分为1982—1998年和1999—2016年2个阶段进行研究。结果表明:黑龙江省农业气象灾害对大豆生产存在负面影响;无论是受灾范围还是受灾强度,干旱都是第1阶段(1982—1998年)黑龙江省大豆生产的关键农业气象灾害;第2阶段(1999—2016年)洪涝灾害对灾害范围影响大,风雹对受灾强度影响大。第1阶段(1982—1998年)是大豆受灾严重的时期,4类灾害对大豆的总产和单产的影响都很大。在第2阶段(1999—2016年),4类灾害对大豆单产的影响大于对总产的影响。
To discuss the effects of agro-meteorological disasters on soybean yield in Heilongjiang.Based on the data of agro-meteorological disasters and soybean yield in Heilongjiang from 1974 to 2016,we analyzed the sequential variation characteristics of agro-meteorological disasters and soybean yield with the mathematical statistics method,and established the mathematical model based on the gray correlation analysis,constructed the disaster rate with the disaster-affected range and the disaster intensity,and divided the research period into two stages from 1982-1998 and 1999-2016.The results showed that:the agrometeorological disasters had a negative impact on soybean yield in Heilongjiang;in the view of the disasteraffected range and the disaster intensity perspective,the drought disaster was the key agro-meteorological disasters to affect the soybean yield in Heilongjiang during 1982-1998(phase 1);the flood had a great impact on disaster-affected range,and the effects of wind hail on the disaster intensity were great during 1999-2016(phase 2).In conclusion,the most serious period for soybean yield is phase 1(during 1982-1998);4 types of disasters have a greater impact on the total yield and yield per unit area of soybean;on the second stage from1999 to 2016,the impact of 4 types of disasters on the yield per unit ares is greater than that on the total yield of soybean.
作者
王秋京
李秀芬
闫平
吕佳佳
王晾晾
马国忠
Wang Qiujing;Li Xiufen;Yan Ping;Lv Jiajia;Wang Liangliang;Ma Guozhong(Innovation and Opening laboratory of Regional Eco-Meteorology in Northeast,China Meteorological Administration/Meteorological Academician Workstation of Heilongjiang Province/Heilongjiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Harbin 150030a;Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory,Harbin 150030)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2020年第3期81-87,共7页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“东北地区大豆干旱形成的时序特征及多源协同诊断研究”(3167101953)
中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室开放研究基金项目“黑龙江冰雹灾害损失风险区划及生态减灾研究”(stqx201805)
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所开放研究基金项目“东北区冬春季锋面云系降水宏微观特征及降水机理研究”(2019SYIAE01)
黑龙江省科学基金项目“黑龙江省典型温室大棚气候生产潜力估算及分析”(LH2019D015).
关键词
气象灾害
大豆
受灾范围
灾害强度
灰色关联分析
meteorological disaster
soybean
disaster-affected range
disaster intensity
grey correlation analysis