甘肃省农业碳排放时空演变及影响因素研究

Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Gansu Province

重点考察甘肃省农业碳排放的时空演变规律,深入分析其地区差异及影响因素,以期为甘肃省农业低碳发展等提供实证依据。采用碳排放系数法对甘肃省及14个市州2005—2021年的农业碳排放进行测算,采用碳排放公平性评价模型和LMDI加法分解模型对甘肃省农业碳排放的时空演化特征和影响因素进行分析。结果表明:甘肃省农业碳排放总量变化趋势可大致分为“持续增加、波动下降”两个阶段,种植业碳排放在甘肃省农业碳排放总量中所占比例为60%左右,畜牧业约占40%;各市州农业碳排放总量和增速具有明显的区域差异;农业碳排放生态承载系数呈现河西、陇东南地区高,陇中地区低的分布特征,经济贡献系数呈现西北高、东南低的空间分布特征;农业生产效率、农业产业结构、农业从业人口对农业碳排放呈现负向效应,而农业经济发展呈现正向效应。未来应该继续巩固种植业固碳减排、畜牧业减排降碳、调整农业产业结构、建立低碳农业合作机制等措施。

This paper focuses on the temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu province,and analyzes its regional differences and influencing factors,in order to provide an empirical basis for the low-carbon development of agriculture in Gansu province.The carbon emission coefficient method is used to measure the agricultural carbon emissions of Gansu province and 14 cities and prefectures from 2005 to 2021,and the carbon emission fairness evaluation model and LMDI additive decomposition model are used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu province.The change trend of total agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province can be roughly divided into two stages:“continuous increase and fluctuation decline”,with planting carbon emissions accounting for about 60%of the total agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu province,and animal husbandry accounting for about 40%.There are obvious regional differences in the total amount and growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions in different cities and prefectures.The ecological carrying coefficient of agricultural carbon emissions showed the distribution characteristics of high in Hexi and southeast Longxi and low in central Longxi,and the economic contribution coefficient showed the spatial distribution characteristics of high in the northwest and low in the southeast.Agricultural production efficiency,agricultural industrial structure,and agricultural population have negative effects on agricultural carbon emissions,while agricultural economic development shows positive effects.In the future,we should continue to consolidate measures such as carbon sequestration and emission reduction in planting,carbon reduction and reduction in animal husbandry,adjustment of agricultural industrial structure,and establishment of low-carbon agricultural cooperation mechanism.