进口冲击与中国婴幼儿奶粉产业链价格传递——兼论以价格竞争赢得市场的可能

Import Shocks and the Price Transmission of Infant Formula Industry in China: With an Exploration of the Possibility of Price Competition as a Strategy to Win the Market

本文基于2012年1月-2018年12月之间的月度数据,结合有向无环图方法和结构向量误差修正模型,考察了在原料与成品双重进口冲击背景下中国婴幼儿奶粉产业链的价格传递,并探讨国产婴幼儿奶粉以价格竞争赢得市场的可能性。研究结果表明,国产婴幼儿奶粉零售价格受进口婴幼儿奶粉零售价格的决定性影响,而前者的变化向上游原料环节的传递效应有限。这一价格传导机制揭示:国产婴幼儿奶粉与进口婴幼儿奶粉的零售价格变动趋势接近平行,其本质是"进口定价、国产跟随";而国产婴幼儿奶粉通过原料环节的成本分担来降价竞争的空间狭小。本文认为,提升国产婴幼儿奶粉的市场占有率有两项关键举措:一是放开零售环节的价格管制,以形成国产婴幼儿奶粉和进口婴幼儿奶粉之间与其市场地位相匹配的价格差异;二是探索原料环节最低价格保护的动态调整,允许国内原料奶价格适当承接国产婴幼儿奶粉零售环节的竞争压力。

Based on the monthly data between January 2012 and December 2018,this study applies a Directed Acyclic Graph-Structural Vector Error Correction Model approach to study the price transmission of China’s infant formula industry in the context of raw milk and formula import shocks,and explores the possibility of domestic infant milk powder to win the market through price competition.The results show that the retail price of domestic infant formula faces the decisive influence from import formula,yet meanwhile,the change of domestic retail price is not well transmitted to the upper stream raw milk price.Such a pattern reveals the decisive role of import formula in the process of price determination between import and domestic infant formula,and the fact that without the support from raw milk,domestic formula has little room for effective price cut.The study holds that two critical measures can be taken to increase the market share of domestic infant formula,namely,the removal of price ceiling in the retail sector so to allow a market-driven price difference between import and export formula,and the adjustment of price floor in theraw material sectorso to makeroom forprice cutof domestic formula.