中国相对贫困标准界定与规模测算

The Standard Definition and Scale Measurement of China’s Relative Poverty

相对贫困标准的界定是建立解决相对贫困长效机制的前提。本文采用模拟收入分布方法还原个体收入数据,测算和比较不同标准下的贫困规模。中国相对贫困线设定既要考虑扶助范围和扶助力度的平衡,还要兼顾城乡融合发展趋势与城乡二元分割现实,最终实现新的贫困线与前期绝对贫困线相衔接,同时充分反映城乡相对贫困现状。本文建议采用"方法城乡统一、基数分城乡与水平分城乡"的方式来界定相对贫困标准:统一采用收入比例法,将城镇居民可支配收入中位数的50%和农村居民可支配收入中位数的40%分别作为城乡相对贫困标准。在此标准下,2019年全国相对贫困率为12%,城乡相对贫困率分别为5.8%和21.5%,全国相对贫困人口规模约1.68亿人,城镇相对贫困人口约4921万人、农村相对贫困人口约1.19亿人。相对贫困阶段,中国将面临农村贫困人口规模大、城镇贫困人口增幅大的双重挑战,需及时调整扶贫对象、扶贫目标与扶贫方式。

The definition of relative poverty standard is the prerequisite of establishing a long-term mechanism to solve relative poverty.This article uses simulated income distribution method to restore individual income data,calculates and compares the poverty scale under different standards.The setting of China’s relative poverty line should not only consider the balance between the scope and intensity of assistance,but also take into account the trend of urban-rural integration and the reality of urban-rural dual division,so as to realize the connection between the new poverty line and the previous absolute poverty line,and fully reflect the current situation of urban and rural relative poverty.This study proposes to define the standard of relative poverty by"unifying urban and rural methods,dividing urban and rural areas by base income indicator and dividing urban and rural areas by level".Therefore,it takes 50%of the median disposable income of urban residents and 40%of the median disposable income of rural residents as the relative poverty standard in urban and rural areas,respectively.Under this standard,the national relative poverty rate in 2019 was 12%,and urban and rural relative poverty rates were 5.8%and 21.5%,respectively.The overall relative poverty population nationwide was about 168 million,and that in urban and rural areas were about 49.21 million and 119 million,respectively.At the stage of relative poverty governance,China will face the dual challenges of a large scale of rural poverty population and a large increase in urban poverty population.It is necessary to adjust in time the targets,goals and methods of poverty alleviation.