中国城市人口流动格局演变及影响因素分析

Evolution of the Pattern of China’s Urban Population Flows and Its Proximate Determinants

文章根据腾讯位置大数据推算的城市间人口流动总人次数据,运用网络分析技术,研究中国城市人口流动的空间格局演变及其影响因素。结果发现:(1)人口流动网络的空间格局表现为以北京、上海、广州、深圳、成都、重庆、西安、武汉和长沙等为顶点的十字骨架支撑的菱形结构。最具有人口吸引力的地域集中在长三角、珠三角、京津冀、成渝、关中、中原、长江中游等城市群,而黄河流域多数城市处于人口流失阶段。(2)人口流动网络形成了相对稳定的子群,并且子群的成员多来自同一省份。(3)经济差距、距离及舒适度差异等因素在人口流动网络的形成及演变中发挥了关键作用,人口的流动更趋向于提高舒适程度,而不是单纯追求高收入。

This paper studies the spatial pattern of population flow among cities in China and its evolution using the data of inter-city population flows calculated with Tencent location big data.It also explores the potential influencing factors.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)the spatial pattern of population flow network is relatively stable.It presents a rhombic distribution,supported by a cross skeleton with Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Chengdu,Chongqing,Xi’an,Wuhan and Changsha.The most attractive places are concentrated in urban agglomerations,such as the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the Chengdu-Chongqing,the Guanzhong,the Central Plains,and the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.To the contrary,most cities in the Yellow River basin experience population losses.(2)The population flow network consists of 18 relatively stable communities,many of which are from the same province.(3)The formation and evolution of population flow networks is attributable to economic disparity,geographic distance,and comfort differences brought about by artificial facilities or natural environment.The population flow to improve comfort level,in addition to pursue higher income.