流动人口教育回报率变动趋势研究

Trends of the Return to Education among Floating Population

文章利用20102017年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,运用工具变量法和分位数回归分析中国流动人口教育回报率变动趋势,并从户籍、性别、代际和收入层级4个维度分析教育回报的异质性。研究结果表明:(1)20102017年流动人口平均教育回报率呈上升趋势,从2010年的4.61%上升至2017年的6.66%;(2)城城流动人口教育回报率高于乡城流动人口,这一差距随时间推移而扩大;(3)流动人口教育回报率的性别差异由"女高男低"转向"男高女低";(4)流动人口收入层级越高,教育回报率越高,并且这一优势逐渐向中间收入层级扩展;(5)新生代流动人口教育回报率高于老一代流动人口,在高收入阶层新生代流动人口的优势更加明显,加剧了流动人口内部的代际收入分化。文章建议,从增加教育经费投入、教育资源向农村倾斜、保障升学机会、降低歧视、加强流动人口职业技能培训等方面保障流动人口的就业机会和收入水平,促进实现共同富裕。

Based on the data of Chinese Migrants Dynamic Monitoring Survey(CMDS)from 2010 to 2017,this paper uses IV method and quantile regression to analyze the trajectory of the return on education among floating population in China.It also examines the heterogeneity related with Hukou,gender,generation and income level.The results show that:(1)the average return on education increases from 4.61%in 2010 to 6.66%in 2017.(2)The return rate is higher for urban-urban migrants than that of rural-urban migrants,and this gap enlarges over time.(3)The gender difference of educational return has reversed toward a higher return rate for the male.(4)Higher income coincides with higher educational return rate,and this advantage gradually extends to the middle income group.(5)The educational return rate is higher for the new generation of floating population than that of the older generation.The advantage of new generation is greater in the high-income strata,which aggravates the inter-generational income gap within the floating population.Therefore,employment opportunities and income level of floating population should be guaranteed from the following aspects:increasing investment in education,tilting educational resources to rural areas,preventing the risk of poverty return and ensuring the opportunities for further education,and reducing discrimination and strengthening vocational skills training for floating population.