地铁发展对城市人口规模和空间分布的影响

The Influence of Subway Development on Urban Population Scale and Spatial Distribution

文章选用中国2018年底前开通运营地铁的26个城市的非平衡面板数据,分析地铁开通运营对中国城市人口规模和空间分布的影响。通过构建人口空间区位分布指标并控制内生性问题,研究发现:(1)地铁规模的扩张对城市人口增长影响不大,不能视为城市人口规模扩张的诱因;(2)地铁使城市人口更趋分散,地铁的延伸使城市的建成区得到扩张;(3)地铁的延伸使地铁客流量出现显著增长,但地铁没有显著促进城市人口的增长,客流量的新增主要来自地铁对其他交通方式的替代。文章认为,城市是否修建地铁应考虑交通需求和运营收入,而不是为了吸引更多外来人口,进而扩大城市规模。地铁虽然无助于扩大城市规模,但对于缓解中国大城市的城市病,提升城市的总体运营效率,乃至高质量的经济发展具有重要意义。

Using the unbalanced panel data of 26 cities in China that have subways by the end of 2018,the paper analyzes the impact of subway operation on the size and spatial distribution of urban population in China.By constructing the spatial distribution index of population and controlling for the endogenity,the research finds that:(1)the expansion of subway scale has little effect on urban population growth,and cannot be regarded as the cause ofurban population expansion.(2)The subway makes the urban population more dispersed,and the extension of the subway makes the urban built-up area expand.(3)The extension of the subway has significantly increased passenger flows,but not urban population.The increase in passenger flows mainly comes from the substitution of the subway for other modes of transportation.The paper concludes that the decision to build a subway should be made by considering traffic demand and operating revenue,rather than to attract more migrants and thus expand the size of the city.Although the subway does not help to expand the size of a city,it is of great significance to alleviate the urban disease of big cities,improve the overall operation efficiency,and to achieve high-quality economic development.