财富储备与“资产型”养老金体系转型研究

Research on Wealth Reserve and the Transformation of “Asset-based” Pension System

文章根据"十四五规划建议",结合《国家积极应对人口老龄化中长期规划》中"夯实应对人口老龄化的社会财富储备",提出从"负债型"向"资产型"养老金体系转型,并对负债型和资产型养老金体系的概念内涵和政策含义进行诠释,分析实施负债型与资产型养老金体系的外部条件约束。文章认为,根据艾伦条件,1978~2050年中国生物收益率将完成4个阶梯的下降,即改革开放以来所经历的第一、第二个阶梯只能建立负债型养老金体系,"十四五"到2035年进入第三个阶梯,具备从负债型向资产型逐渐过渡的条件,应做好顶层设计,资产型制度初步建成;2035~2050年进入更低的第四个阶梯,养老金资产占GDP比重应达到世界平均水平,扭转GDP大国与养老金小国的失衡状态。文章最后对构建资产型养老金可能面临的3个不确定性进行了分析。

Combining the idea of"to consolidate social wealth reserves in response to the aging of the population"in the"National Medium and Long-term Plan for Actively Responding to Population Aging",the paper proposes to transform the pension system from a"debt-based"to an"asset-based"system.It interprets the concepts and policy implications of these two pension systems,and analyzes the external constraints involved.The paper argues that,according to Aaron’s Conditions,China’s biological return rate will decline before 2050.Four phases can be identified in the decline from 1978 to2050,in which a debt-based pension system is only applicable in the first two phases.From the 14 th Five-Year Plan to2035,it will enter the third phase and be ready to transit from the debt-based to asset-based system,which necessitates a top-level design.From 2035 to 2050,it will enter the fourth phase,when the share of pension assets in GDP should reach the world average,and the imbalance between the large GDP and small pension should disappear.Finally,the paper analyzes the three uncertainties underlying the asset-based pension system construction.