银行系统如何传导政府的宏观政策?——基于中国20世纪30年代银行数据

How Does the Banking System Transmit the Government’s Macro Policies?——A Study Based on the Banking Data in the 1930s’ China

政府的宏观政策是如何在银行系统进行传导的?不同的银行在落实宏观政策的过程中究竟扮演着什么样的角色?这些问题对于提高宏观政策质量和银行治理水平而言都十分重要。通过20世纪30年代银行的相关历史数据和双重差分等实证方法,笔者发现大型全国性银行在经济危机期间利用政策优势迅速配置其他金融资产,国债/放贷比例迅速增加;而地方性银行的国债/放贷比例显著收缩,同时积极响应政府举措,扩大了对地方经济建设的放贷,在铁路等基础设施建设中更加积极。造成这种不同的原因与不同银行本身的业务性质、政策势能、区域性特征有着重要关系。

How are the government’s macro policies transmitted in the banking system?What role do different banks play in the process of implementing macroeconomic policies?These issues are very important for improving the quality of macro policies and the level of bank governance.Through relevant historical data of banks in the 1930 s and empirical methods such as Difference in Difference,we find that large national banks used policy advantages to quickly allocate other financial assets during the economic crisis,and the proportion of securities/lending increased rapidly.However,the proportion of securities/lending by local banks shrank significantly.At the same time,they actively responded to government initiatives and expanded lending to local economic construction,and they became more active in infrastructure construction such as railways.We believe that the reasons for this difference have an important relationship with the business,policy and regional characteristics of different banks.