延迟退休、劳动力供给与经济增长——基于生育动机视角的分析

Postponed Retirement,Labor Supply and Economic Growth:Analysis Based on the Perspective of Birth Motivation

本文基于生育动机视角,利用统一增长理论研究了生育政策松动的背景下延迟退休对劳动力供给和经济增长的长期影响。研究发现,影响方向取决于父母对子女数量和质量的相对重视程度以及对子女照料的偏好规模。数值模拟结果显示:在当前中国的现实参数下,延迟退休将提高均衡状态时劳动力供给数量的增长率并降低质量的增长率,净效应为促进经济增长。动态角度来看:当父母对子女数量的相对重视程度或者对子女照料的偏好规模提高时,延迟退休对经济增长的影响都将由促进逐步转变为抑制。而当退休年龄既定后,经济增长率与父母对子女数量的相对重视程度之间呈倒U型关系、与对子女照料的偏好规模之间呈负相关。以上结论表明在评估延迟退休的政策效应时,应充分关注微观个体的偏好情况及其变动趋势,以规划并实施配套政策措施,从而达到促进经济增长的政策目标。

Based on the perspective of fertility motivation,this paper uses the unified growth theory to study the longterm impact of postponed retirement on labor supply and economic growth under the background of loose fertility policy.It is found that the direction of influence depends on the relative importance that parents attach to the quantity and quality of their children and the scale of their preference for child care.The numerical simulation show that:under the parameters of current Chinese reality,postponed retirement will increase the growth rate of labor supply and reduce the growth rate of its quality in equilibrium,and the net effect is to enhance the economic growth rate.From the dynamic point of view,when parents pay more attention to the number of children or their preference for child care increases,the impact of postponed retirement on economic growth will gradually shift from a boost to a dampening effect.When the retirement age is fixed,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the economic growth rate and parents'relative attention to the number of children,and a negative correlation between the economic growth rate and parents'preference for child care.The above conclusions indicate that when evaluating the policy effect of postponed retirement,we should pay full attention to the preference of individuals at micro-levels and their changing trend to plan and implement supporting policies and measures,so as to achieve the policy goal of promoting economic growth.