成本准则、技术进步与利润率——对置盐定理的经验检验

Cost Criterion,Technical Change,and the Rate of Profit:An Empirical Verification of Okishio’s Theorem

本文从经验层面对置盐定理进行了检验和反思,使用中国(1987—2017)和日本(1960—2015)的投入产出数据,基于三大部类模型对两国的生产成本变化、均衡利润率以及实际利润率等进行测算。研究得出两个主要结论:一是置盐定理所使用的成本准则假定具备一定现实依据;二是满足成本准则并不能保证实际利润率上升,实际利润率与均衡利润率存在显著差异和系统性背离。由此,本文对置盐定理及其所依托的均衡生产价格体系提出了批评:置盐定理仅描述了均衡状态下的利润率变动,而我们更需要从非均衡视角正确解读利润率趋向下降规律。

This paper tests and reflects on the Okishio’s theorem from the empirical perspective.Based on the national input-output tables of China(1987-2017)and Japan(1960-2015),we test the empirical relevance of the cost criterion,and investigate its empirical relationship with both the equilibrium and actual rates of profit in a three-departmentmodel.There are two main findings.On the one hand,the cost criterion assumption used in Okishio’stheorem has a certain practical basis.However,on the other hand,meeting the cost criterion does not imply an increase in the actual profit rate.There are significant and systematic differences between the actual and the equilibrium rates of profit.Therefore,this paper takes a critical stance regarding the Okishio’s theorem and its equilibrium production price system:Thetheorem only describes the movement of equilibrium rate of profit;tocorrectly interpret the law of profit rate to fall,however,a disequilibrium perspectiveis needed.