金融结构与中国经济增长潜力的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Financial Structure and China’s Economic Potential Growth

基于设区市层面数据,第一,本文证实了最优金融结构理论适用于中国,且最优金融结构是通过与产业结构相匹配来影响经济增长潜力的。第二,该文借助面板门槛模型,发现随着我国人均收入水平提升,直接融资对经济增长潜力的拉动作用越来越重要。可见我国实际金融结构偏于最优金融结构,发展资本市场十分必要。本研究也为衡量金融结构缺口提供了更为简便的方法。第三,在此基础上,进一步使用省际层面数据对上述结论进行稳健性检验,两个层面数据都表现出一致的结论,提高了本文结论可信度。

Based on the data of district-level cities,firstly,this paper confirms that the optimal financial structure theory is applicable to China,and the optimal financial structure affects the economic growth potential by matching with the industrial structure.Second,the article uses the panel threshold model to find that as China’s per capita income level rises,the role of direct financing in driving economic growth potential is becoming more and more important.China’s actual financial structure is biased towards the optimal financial structure,and the development of capital market is very necessary.This study also provides a more convenient method for measuring the financial structure gap.Thirdly,the provincial level data is further used to test the above conclusions.The data of both levels show consistent conclusions,which improves the credibility of the conclusions.