老龄化对货币需求影响的研究——基于省级面板数据

The Impact of Aging on Money Demand:Based on Provincial Panel Data

出于预防动机和保守的投机策略,老年人比少年人和中年人更倾向于持有现金和储蓄存款。当老龄化加剧时,居民增加对现金和储蓄存款这类安全性金融资产的需求。因此老龄化有助于解释进入老龄化社会后我国的高货币需求现象。本文基于2005~2017年的中国省级面板数据,以双向固定效应模型作为逻辑起点,处理了自相关、异方差和截面相关问题,并使用系统GMM方法处理可能存在的内生性问题。实证结果:表明老龄化对货币需求存在正向影响关系;老龄化对不同地区货币需求的影响具有异质性;人口老龄化对经济发达地区的货币需求有正影响;对经济发展程度中等和较低地区的货币需求有负影响。

Out of preventive motivation and conservative speculative strategy,the elderly are more likely to hold cash and savings than the young and middle-aged.As aging intensifies,residents increase their demand for safe financial assets such as cash and savings deposits.Therefore,aging helps to explain the phenomenon of high money demand in China after entering the aging society.Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2017,this paper takes the two-way fixed effect model as the logical starting point to deal with the problems of autocorrelation,heteroscedasticity and crosssectional correlation,and uses the System GMM method to deal with the possible endogenous problems.The empirical results show that aging has a positive impact on money demand.The influence of aging on money demand in different regions is heterogeneous.The aging of population has a positive impact on the money demand in the economically developed areas,and a negative impact on the money demand in the medium and low economic development areas.