家庭负债与杠杆率结构性分布失衡影响因素研究——基于Probit-Tobit模型下CHFS经验证据

Research on the Factors Influencing the Structural Unbalance of Household Debt and Leverage——Based on the Probit-Tobit Model CHFS Empirical Evidence

本文将2017年CHFS数据29个省(直辖市)样本按照人均GDP水平分为三类区域,运用Probit-Tobit模型实证分析导致居民家庭负债行为选择和杠杆率结构性分布失衡的微观影响因素。实证表明:家庭资产配置主动性负债对杠杆率的影响显著,加杠杆表现为局部集中化和区域不均衡特征,经济水平越发达地区最为显著。高收入家庭选择负债加杠杆的意愿趋强,表现出"高收入、高负债"特征;人口社会学特征变量对家庭负债选择的影响显著性存在差异。

This paper divides the sample of 29 provinces(municipalities)of CHFS data in 2017 into three types of regions according to the per capita GDP level.The Probit-Tobit model is used to empirically analyze the micro-influencing factors that lead to the imbalance in the choice of household debt behavior and the structural distribution of leverage.The empirical evidence shows that the active liabilities of household asset allocation have a significant impact on the leverage ratio.Leveraging shows the characteristics of local centralization and regional imbalance.The more economically developed regions are the most significant.High-income households have a stronger willingness to choose debt and leverage,showing the characteristics of"high income and high debt";there are significant differences in the impact of demographic sociological characteristics on household debt selection.