金融发展对经济增长影响的门槛效应研究——基于人均收入和人力资本视角的分析

Research on the Threshold Effect of Financial Development on Economic Growth——Based on the Perspective of Per Capita Income And Human Capital

本文基于中国2000~2017年的省级面板数据,从人均收入和人力资本的视角出发,运用门槛模型研究金融发展对经济增长的影响。结果表明:以人均收入为门槛变量时,金融发展与经济增长之间关系呈现出"先抑制后抑制作用削弱再到促进"的双门槛效应;以人力资本为门槛变量时,金融发展与经济增长之间关系呈现出"先抑制后促进"的单门槛效应。此外,当前我国各省的人均收入和人力资本均已跨越相应门槛值,金融发展能够有效促进经济增长。

Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017,this paper uses the threshold model to study the impact of financial development on economic growth from the perspective of per capita income and human capital.The results show that under different per capita incomes and human capital levels,the role of financial development in economic growth shows a clear threshold effect.When per capita income is used as a threshold,the relationship between financial development and economic growth presents a double threshold effect of"suppression-weakened suppressionpromotion".When human capital is used as a threshold,the relationship presents a single threshold effect of"first suppression and then promotion".In addition,the current per capita income and human capital of all provinces in China have crossed the corresponding threshold,and financial development plays a role in promoting economic growth.