基于特殊任务Prophet模型的航材消耗需求预测模型

Prediction Model of Aviation Material Consumption Demand Based on Special Task Prophet Model

为了解决当前航材消耗需求预测方法难以处理特殊任务造成的异常消耗数据,对特殊任务数据的拟合和预测效果不佳的问题,应用考虑特殊任务因素的Prophet时序预测模型对航材的消耗过程进行建模。分析了特殊任务的航材消耗需求预测特点与要求,建立了特殊任务航材消耗需求预测Prophet模型,并与无特殊任务Prophet模型和传统时序预测模型进行了对比。结果表明:该模型能够有效拟合97%的特殊任务的航材消耗数据,具有更高的预测精度。

In order to solve the problem that the current prediction method of aviation material consumption demand is difficult to deal with abnormal consumption data caused by special task and the fitting and prediction effect of the data of special task is not good,the Prophet time series prediction model considering special task factors is applied to model the consumption process of aviation material consumption parts.The prediction characteristics and requirements of aviation material consumption demand for special tasks are analyzed,and the Prophet model of prediction of aviation material consumption demand for special tasks is established.Finally it compared with the non-task Prophet model and the prediction model of traditional time series.The experimental results show that this model can fit 97%of the special task consumption data effectively and has higher prediction accuracy.